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[Ru]
nikpavl2002.dreamwidth.org/42669.html
[Eng]
The wish to live in times of change, according to the sages of China fortified by millenniums of experience, is the worst for anyone. Alas, but we live in this very era. We are always offered to choose the lesser of two evils but deprived of the possibility to choose between Good and Evil.
If the ideas of Maidan in 2004 expressed only the desire of the Ukrainians for a good life, then the Maidan of 2014 suggested concrete ways to achieve it. However, the heady air of freedom once again played a cruel joke, and the lessons of the first Maidan were not learned. Like ten years ago, all the same incompetent adventurers, obsessed with the desire to gain power, with the agility of a pickpocket snagged it from the hands of the participants of the second Maidan. Now we are reaping the fruits of their carelessness.
The adventurism of the current power is visible everywhere. Since its inception, it has declared intentions to carry out reforms in the life of the country, while having very vague ideas about the mechanism for their implementation. The main distinctive feature of the “new” power is its glaring incompetence in everything. It, like an bull in a china shop, destroys everything it touches.
They say that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. At a time when both the economy and the public life in the country need resuscitation actions, the government is busy with cosmetic changes designed to help it to get the next tranche from the IMF. The absence in the country of a working apparatus of public administration transforms any management decisions of the current government into declarations of intent without follow-up. The people of power imitate vigorous activity, and their unfounded ambitions do not allow them to conduct an honest dialogue with the people.
Any president's speech is more like a PR action than a frank conversation on the substance of the problems. I do not think that as businessman, Poroshenko would tolerate such an attitude to work on the part of employees in his company. Why, then, should the people of Ukraine listen to complaints from the president hired by them in the absence of his competent actions to accomplish the tasks set?
Indicative in this regard is Poroshenko’s “peacekeeping” activity. The desire to go down in history as the savior of Ukraine was for him the goal that can justify any means chosen to achieve it, even if it is a question of surrendering part of the country’s territory or making hundreds of Ukrainians victims of a “unilateral truce” having deprived them of their lives. This happens to those who give out desirable for valid. There are no actions that do not entail responsibility, but it seems that the current government and the president think differently.
For many, the main question remains unanswered: why Putin, having the desire to annex Ukraine and being in possession of a combat-ready army for this, did not go the shortest way to achieve his goal and did not realize a full-scale invasion of troops into the territory of a neighboring state?
The answer must be sought in the “little things,” to which we do not attach much importance, for we follow by analogy the examples of the development of similar events in the past. Many believe that there are two parties to the conflict: Ukraine and Russia. There are not many countries which are able to influence its development – these are the USA, Europe and China.
One should not forget that Russia itself, until recently, was among the world leaders who were allowed a lot. Its reproach to England and the United States, which condemned the intention of the annexation of Ukraine by Russia, is quite appropriate if we look at the events of recent history, when these states themselves carried out similar actions against countries in their area of interest. True, Russia itself is largely to blame for its current troubles, because if it carried out the complete annexation of Ukraine as recklessly as it occupied the Crimea, there would be no current problems. Stalin knew what he said when he instructed the chekists to Bolshevik wisdom – no man, no problem. But Putin the Chekist in this case messed up completely [The Cheka, Soviet secret police in 1918–1922, famous for its mercilessness towards "enemies of the people." Term chekist means secret service agent and at present is often used as a synonym for KGB agent or FSB operative. – Translator's note].
He had to be content with the spontaneously arisen project “Novorossiya”, which could hardly compensate for the failed capture of mainland Ukraine. But as they say, better a small fish than an empty dish. That is only that the implementation of this project has brought about more problems to Russia itself.
The current attempt to take revenge at the Donetsk airport, which claimed the lives of 32 operatives of the Russian elite special forces' group "Vympel," who were killed in battle in one day (!), which number exceeds its cumulative losses (29 dead) for all 33 years of its existence, only confirmed the fact that the overall loss ratio is by no means accidental, and Russian troops in Ukraine are doomed to defeat [Spetsgruppa "V" or "Vympel," abbreviation of the Directorate "V" (Управление "В" in Russian, where "В" is cyrillic for "V") of the Russian Federation Federal Security Service (FSB) Special Operations Center. – Translator's note]. The result is important, not the interpretation of possible ways to achieve it.
Many are looking for the reason of the Russian army's failures in the incompetent decisions of generals and problems with the psyche of Putin himself, which seems unlikely. It is possible that only in the United States the analytics are aware of the true causes of Russia's failures, while Europe is completely ignorant and seriously takes the threats of the latter in its address.
The United States prefers to watch the hysteria of the Ukrainian government and its European partners, who don't even try to analyze the course of events since the occupation of the Crimea, in order to correctly assess Russia's real capabilities in the current conflict, and prefer to frighten themselves with the likely threat of a full-scale invasion. Western sanctions do not upset Russia too much, since they cannot have a significant impact on the combat capability of the army, and the problems of the civilian population for the authorities, which follow the principle: the worse, the better, don't matter.
But let's go back to the "little things," which were discussed earlier. Take at least these:
1. The absence of panic among the population, which is everyday subjected to shelling;
2. The ineffectiveness of the use of artillery, a large number of the originally serviceable unexploded mines, shells and ammunition of missile launchers of various systems;
3. The loss of combat capability of the Russian army units, mercenaries "militias;" the inefficiency of the snipers' and sabotage groups' work;
4. The problems with military equipment and weapons supplied from Russia;
5. The lack of effective interaction between the military branches in the ATO zone; firefights between mercenaries, militias and the Russian military; large losses among the personnel of the occupiers and their accomplices, incommensurable with the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Separately, it is necessary to single out the mysterious traceless disappearance of the FSB special forces group led by the deputy chief of staff of the military unit 35690 near Lisichansk on December 30, 2014, which did not fulfill its task.
In addition, since the beginning of the conflict, as announced by the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation in the spring of 2014, Russian reconnaissance satellites have been "blinded" over Ukraine, and attempts to launch the new ones ended in the fall of carrier-rockets.
There should be noted also the frequent cases of loss of command and control over the military throughout the territory of Russia and abroad, which directly threatens the security of the country. There is every reason to believe that everything that happens is of non-random systemic nature. So, heretoga Putin should not worry about his image, but about the threat of the Russian state's collapse.
Each victory of the Ukrainian military is a demonstration of problems in the security system of Russia itself and does not remain without attention from neighbors who have long been claiming its territory.
All attempts to reach an agreement between Russia and Ukraine with the loss of part of the territory of the latter are doomed to failure, even if there is agreement from the Ukrainian president. There is no doubt that Putin needs all of Ukraine, but without Poroshenko and his company. Alas, they do not like traitors in Russia itself.
What is the meaning of the negotiations that the Ukrainian president constantly initiates? It is unpretentious and simple: to keep himself in power at any cost. But he has nothing to offer Putin, and the latter uses precious time to overcome the problems that he faced, of which Poroshenko doesn't have a faintest idea. The former KGB half colonel is increasingly tormented by the question: "What is the use of force if it cannot be used of one's own will and understanding?"
So it happened to the Russian president with his army. It exists and is fully capable, but only not in Ukraine. There, the strange metamorphoses take place with it and, for unexplained reasons, it completely loses its fighting ability. The consciousness of people refuses to believe in the reality of what is happening and encourages them to look for the cause where none exist. The connoisseurs of science and the church gurus just throw their hands up, as their knowledge does not go beyond the usual ideas that dominate in the society. The reason for this is their vulgar-materialistic thinking, which refuses to admit that in this case, the obvious, but incredible for the human world, events are in fact a manifestation of the actions of the Third Force (read: the Creator).
Time passes, and the secret at some point may become apparent. And then the Ukrainian military will understand that they are capable of defeating an enemy, who won't be able to provide decent resistance, with one blow. There will open up the Ukrainian president’s lies about his agreements in Minsk, when he deliberately stopped the Ukrainian military’s offensive by staging a unilateral truce in order to constrain volunteer forces in the ATO area and prevent them from appearing in Kiev with questions that were inconvenient to Poroshenko.
It should also be said about the role of well-known politicians, whom Poroshenko woos to participate as "intermediaries" in negotiations with Russia in different formats. All of them expect to get a share of the pie called "Ukraine." One can believe in the disinterestedness of help of the Western countries' ordinary people, who are sincerely at one with the Ukrainian people in their struggle with the aggressor, but one cannot beleive those who exercise power over them. Power, by its nature, can be neither fair nor just, since it relies on the use of force designed to subordinate the majority to the interests of a handful of rogues.
People in power in Ukraine are no exception. But it's only that it never occurred to them that not only the Russian president faces troubles, but also those who are ready to sacrifice the interests of their country in order to save the image of their “benefactor” Putin.
I wouldn't want to chagrin those who considered Ukraine to be a place where they could profit, but should upset them: they won't succeed. Gentlemen, the fact that the Ukrainian government is ready to knuckle under to each of you doesn't at all mean that you really might get lucky.
The principle “he who serves and treats a lady has her being willing and ready,” no longer applies to Ukraine [At present the sense of this saying in the Post-Soviet culture has become broader and is more about politics, business etc., than sex, and generally means "you flash the cash, you get the play." – Translator's note].
Translated by professor Leonid Bilousov
nikpavl2002.dreamwidth.org/42669.html
[Eng]
The wish to live in times of change, according to the sages of China fortified by millenniums of experience, is the worst for anyone. Alas, but we live in this very era. We are always offered to choose the lesser of two evils but deprived of the possibility to choose between Good and Evil.
If the ideas of Maidan in 2004 expressed only the desire of the Ukrainians for a good life, then the Maidan of 2014 suggested concrete ways to achieve it. However, the heady air of freedom once again played a cruel joke, and the lessons of the first Maidan were not learned. Like ten years ago, all the same incompetent adventurers, obsessed with the desire to gain power, with the agility of a pickpocket snagged it from the hands of the participants of the second Maidan. Now we are reaping the fruits of their carelessness.
The adventurism of the current power is visible everywhere. Since its inception, it has declared intentions to carry out reforms in the life of the country, while having very vague ideas about the mechanism for their implementation. The main distinctive feature of the “new” power is its glaring incompetence in everything. It, like an bull in a china shop, destroys everything it touches.
They say that the road to hell is paved with good intentions. At a time when both the economy and the public life in the country need resuscitation actions, the government is busy with cosmetic changes designed to help it to get the next tranche from the IMF. The absence in the country of a working apparatus of public administration transforms any management decisions of the current government into declarations of intent without follow-up. The people of power imitate vigorous activity, and their unfounded ambitions do not allow them to conduct an honest dialogue with the people.
Any president's speech is more like a PR action than a frank conversation on the substance of the problems. I do not think that as businessman, Poroshenko would tolerate such an attitude to work on the part of employees in his company. Why, then, should the people of Ukraine listen to complaints from the president hired by them in the absence of his competent actions to accomplish the tasks set?
Indicative in this regard is Poroshenko’s “peacekeeping” activity. The desire to go down in history as the savior of Ukraine was for him the goal that can justify any means chosen to achieve it, even if it is a question of surrendering part of the country’s territory or making hundreds of Ukrainians victims of a “unilateral truce” having deprived them of their lives. This happens to those who give out desirable for valid. There are no actions that do not entail responsibility, but it seems that the current government and the president think differently.
For many, the main question remains unanswered: why Putin, having the desire to annex Ukraine and being in possession of a combat-ready army for this, did not go the shortest way to achieve his goal and did not realize a full-scale invasion of troops into the territory of a neighboring state?
The answer must be sought in the “little things,” to which we do not attach much importance, for we follow by analogy the examples of the development of similar events in the past. Many believe that there are two parties to the conflict: Ukraine and Russia. There are not many countries which are able to influence its development – these are the USA, Europe and China.
One should not forget that Russia itself, until recently, was among the world leaders who were allowed a lot. Its reproach to England and the United States, which condemned the intention of the annexation of Ukraine by Russia, is quite appropriate if we look at the events of recent history, when these states themselves carried out similar actions against countries in their area of interest. True, Russia itself is largely to blame for its current troubles, because if it carried out the complete annexation of Ukraine as recklessly as it occupied the Crimea, there would be no current problems. Stalin knew what he said when he instructed the chekists to Bolshevik wisdom – no man, no problem. But Putin the Chekist in this case messed up completely [The Cheka, Soviet secret police in 1918–1922, famous for its mercilessness towards "enemies of the people." Term chekist means secret service agent and at present is often used as a synonym for KGB agent or FSB operative. – Translator's note].
He had to be content with the spontaneously arisen project “Novorossiya”, which could hardly compensate for the failed capture of mainland Ukraine. But as they say, better a small fish than an empty dish. That is only that the implementation of this project has brought about more problems to Russia itself.
The current attempt to take revenge at the Donetsk airport, which claimed the lives of 32 operatives of the Russian elite special forces' group "Vympel," who were killed in battle in one day (!), which number exceeds its cumulative losses (29 dead) for all 33 years of its existence, only confirmed the fact that the overall loss ratio is by no means accidental, and Russian troops in Ukraine are doomed to defeat [Spetsgruppa "V" or "Vympel," abbreviation of the Directorate "V" (Управление "В" in Russian, where "В" is cyrillic for "V") of the Russian Federation Federal Security Service (FSB) Special Operations Center. – Translator's note]. The result is important, not the interpretation of possible ways to achieve it.
Many are looking for the reason of the Russian army's failures in the incompetent decisions of generals and problems with the psyche of Putin himself, which seems unlikely. It is possible that only in the United States the analytics are aware of the true causes of Russia's failures, while Europe is completely ignorant and seriously takes the threats of the latter in its address.
The United States prefers to watch the hysteria of the Ukrainian government and its European partners, who don't even try to analyze the course of events since the occupation of the Crimea, in order to correctly assess Russia's real capabilities in the current conflict, and prefer to frighten themselves with the likely threat of a full-scale invasion. Western sanctions do not upset Russia too much, since they cannot have a significant impact on the combat capability of the army, and the problems of the civilian population for the authorities, which follow the principle: the worse, the better, don't matter.
But let's go back to the "little things," which were discussed earlier. Take at least these:
1. The absence of panic among the population, which is everyday subjected to shelling;
2. The ineffectiveness of the use of artillery, a large number of the originally serviceable unexploded mines, shells and ammunition of missile launchers of various systems;
3. The loss of combat capability of the Russian army units, mercenaries "militias;" the inefficiency of the snipers' and sabotage groups' work;
4. The problems with military equipment and weapons supplied from Russia;
5. The lack of effective interaction between the military branches in the ATO zone; firefights between mercenaries, militias and the Russian military; large losses among the personnel of the occupiers and their accomplices, incommensurable with the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Separately, it is necessary to single out the mysterious traceless disappearance of the FSB special forces group led by the deputy chief of staff of the military unit 35690 near Lisichansk on December 30, 2014, which did not fulfill its task.
In addition, since the beginning of the conflict, as announced by the Ministry of Digital Development, Communications and Mass Media of the Russian Federation in the spring of 2014, Russian reconnaissance satellites have been "blinded" over Ukraine, and attempts to launch the new ones ended in the fall of carrier-rockets.
There should be noted also the frequent cases of loss of command and control over the military throughout the territory of Russia and abroad, which directly threatens the security of the country. There is every reason to believe that everything that happens is of non-random systemic nature. So, heretoga Putin should not worry about his image, but about the threat of the Russian state's collapse.
Each victory of the Ukrainian military is a demonstration of problems in the security system of Russia itself and does not remain without attention from neighbors who have long been claiming its territory.
All attempts to reach an agreement between Russia and Ukraine with the loss of part of the territory of the latter are doomed to failure, even if there is agreement from the Ukrainian president. There is no doubt that Putin needs all of Ukraine, but without Poroshenko and his company. Alas, they do not like traitors in Russia itself.
What is the meaning of the negotiations that the Ukrainian president constantly initiates? It is unpretentious and simple: to keep himself in power at any cost. But he has nothing to offer Putin, and the latter uses precious time to overcome the problems that he faced, of which Poroshenko doesn't have a faintest idea. The former KGB half colonel is increasingly tormented by the question: "What is the use of force if it cannot be used of one's own will and understanding?"
So it happened to the Russian president with his army. It exists and is fully capable, but only not in Ukraine. There, the strange metamorphoses take place with it and, for unexplained reasons, it completely loses its fighting ability. The consciousness of people refuses to believe in the reality of what is happening and encourages them to look for the cause where none exist. The connoisseurs of science and the church gurus just throw their hands up, as their knowledge does not go beyond the usual ideas that dominate in the society. The reason for this is their vulgar-materialistic thinking, which refuses to admit that in this case, the obvious, but incredible for the human world, events are in fact a manifestation of the actions of the Third Force (read: the Creator).
Time passes, and the secret at some point may become apparent. And then the Ukrainian military will understand that they are capable of defeating an enemy, who won't be able to provide decent resistance, with one blow. There will open up the Ukrainian president’s lies about his agreements in Minsk, when he deliberately stopped the Ukrainian military’s offensive by staging a unilateral truce in order to constrain volunteer forces in the ATO area and prevent them from appearing in Kiev with questions that were inconvenient to Poroshenko.
It should also be said about the role of well-known politicians, whom Poroshenko woos to participate as "intermediaries" in negotiations with Russia in different formats. All of them expect to get a share of the pie called "Ukraine." One can believe in the disinterestedness of help of the Western countries' ordinary people, who are sincerely at one with the Ukrainian people in their struggle with the aggressor, but one cannot beleive those who exercise power over them. Power, by its nature, can be neither fair nor just, since it relies on the use of force designed to subordinate the majority to the interests of a handful of rogues.
People in power in Ukraine are no exception. But it's only that it never occurred to them that not only the Russian president faces troubles, but also those who are ready to sacrifice the interests of their country in order to save the image of their “benefactor” Putin.
I wouldn't want to chagrin those who considered Ukraine to be a place where they could profit, but should upset them: they won't succeed. Gentlemen, the fact that the Ukrainian government is ready to knuckle under to each of you doesn't at all mean that you really might get lucky.
The principle “he who serves and treats a lady has her being willing and ready,” no longer applies to Ukraine [At present the sense of this saying in the Post-Soviet culture has become broader and is more about politics, business etc., than sex, and generally means "you flash the cash, you get the play." – Translator's note].
Translated by professor Leonid Bilousov