I'll Come Unexpectedly, and Everyone Should Be Ready

Приду неожиданно, и каждый должен быть готов

[Ru]

nikpavl2002.dreamwidth.org/49686.html

[Eng]

 When face to face we cannot see the face. Sometimes it is useful to have an outside perspective in order to understand the logic of the development of events and the role of the forces participating in them.
 The collapse of the USSR and the formation of new states in the post-Soviet space added problems to Europe and the US, as it became more difficult to control these territories.
 Earlier it was expected that the USSR would retain its integrity, and all reforms in it would be implemented from a single center in Moscow. So, when president Putin, who considered the restoration of
Moscow's control over the entire post-Soviet space to be one of his priorities, came to power in Russia, they didn’t interfere with his plans for the ‘reunification of the Russian lands’ within the framework of a single state.
 Russia received the statehood as a legacy from the USSR and declared herself its Successor State. As for the other former Soviet republics, they continued to use the state administration apparatus, which they inherited from the USSR, and thus did not acquire a real statehood.
 Only the Baltic republics, as well as the countries that participated in the former Warsaw Pact, were able to obtain colonial statehood from the European Union, having become its members.
 At one time, Russia abandoned her interests in the Middle East in exchange for the West’s recognition of the former USSR territory as zone of Russian priorities. When the ‘orange revolution’ took place in
Ukraine, and Russia couldn’t prevent it, she gave the United States a reason to try to take control of the situation.
 To consolidate the new status of Ukraine, the Americans had to deploy their troops on her territory, but they failed to do so for the same reason as Russia, although the latter was able to realize its military presence in all the former Soviet republics except for the Baltic States and the continental part of Ukraine. As a result, the Americans lost interest in Ukraine and were not opposed to Russia's dealing with
Ukrainian problems. So, the transfer of power from Yushchenko to Yanukovich took place by mutual agreement between the West and Putin.
 During the Yanukovich’s presidency in Ukraine, Russia has got the opportunity to hold all the necessary measures to implement her ‘peaceful’ entry into the ‘unified and indivisible’. A powerful ‘fifth column’, the introduction of Russian special services agents into all spheres of the Ukrainian state and society, as well as the destruction of the state administration apparatus, was to guarantee the irreversibility of this process.
 All events were conducted under the control and with the direct participation of the ‘observers’’ institution through which Yanukovich exercised his power [the term ‘observer’ comes from the criminal world (it is similar in general meaning to the term alpha-dog in the American criminal slang) and means an unofficial person (politician, businessman or even a thief-in-law), who controls certain territory or business on errand of an official functionary]. The powers that be have actually replaced with this institution the government apparatus, which made it possible to create the appearance of the latter's functioning for the world community and local opposition. If those who usurped power after the Maidan in 2014, understood that without the government apparatus they were not able to exercise their powers, they would hardly have decided to a coup d'état.
 During the former regime’s governing, the apparatus lost most of the specialists, whose places there have taken those, who paid for them to Yanukovych's people and to this day ‘beat off’ through cash grab the funds spent. Poroshenko's candidacy for the post of the new president was not chosen by chance, since it was he who was supposed to establish contact with the officials of the former regime, who, according to the authorities, sabotaged its decisions.
 Alas, but the government itself together with its patrons in the West, have miscalculated greatly in their understanding about the reasons for its incapacity. The new president, the government and the Verkhovna Rada [Parliament] turned out to be ‘wedding generals’. They make decisions and laws that cannot be implemented, since the apparatus of the state administration doesn’t work in the country.
 Smart people on the Maidan began to develop a new concept of government: through self-organization to self-government and self-defense. The emergence of the volunteer military units and the movement of civil volunteers was the result of practical implementation of the self-organization’s ideas.
 On the contrary, the authorities tried to organize the control of the army and the management of the state at the initial level using the network principle. However, both do not work in reality, and there is only imitation of their activities. The authorities try to create among the population of the country the illusion of their stable functioning, but nothing goes beyond the declarations. There are no and cannot be any promised reforms. It seems that the Western investors are gradually beginning to understand this and intend to seek the introduction of the country’s external governance using the Western experts, which automatically ‘abolishes’ the existence of the current president and government. The country will receive colonial-type statehood.
 In the United States, they perfectly well understand unusualness of the situation in Ukraine. With an incompetent power and a disorganized army, it is impossible to provide substantial resistance to such an enemy as Russia. Until recently, many believed that the Russian army was not carrying out a full-scale invasion because of the whim of president Putin, but now there is too much factual material, from which it transpires that this is far from the case.
 It seems that the Russian army has been stopped by unknown forces, which turn all its servicemen, who cross the border with Ukraine into targets for Ukrainian soldiers. By the ratio of losses, it can be assumed that the Russian troops are confronted by elite spetsnaz (Special Forces), which simply isn’t there. The effectiveness of the use of any weapons on the territory of Ukraine cannot be explained. After the shelling of Russian missile and barrel artillery of large calibers, irreversible losses, as well as the number of wounded from the Ukrainian side, are calculated in units. But the enemy's losses in manpower and military equipment are growing every day, although the Ukrainian army does not conduct offensive actions. If this continues, then the so called Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics will self-dissolve, and the Ukrainian army will be forced to reach the border with Russia. There will be no one to negotiate with in Minsk.
 Some functionaries of the above mentioned self-proclaimed republics try to compare the situation in the conflict zone with what is happening in Syria and other ‘hot spots’. We will deal with this also, but first a little piece of history.
 The US military faced the problems of "external influence" in Libya, when the Special Forces’ units were incapacitated, and made adequate conclusions from the current situation. To the credit of the American generals, the lives of the soldiers turned out to be weightier for them than the desire to win at all costs, and there was no ground operation in the territory of Libya. Nevertheless, the American side did not manage to completely avoid the negative consequences of the new reality. And soon the US State Department had to yield to utter of its diplomatic mission in Libya and the massacre of the US ambassador because of the lack of the marines regular group to ensure his safety and the inability to use the anti-terrorist detachment of the Navy Seals to ensure his defensive screen and evacuation of diplomats.
 And for Russian generals, soldiers are only the expendables, whose life and health can be neglected, and the conflict in Ukraine is a proof of this.
 As for Syria, the US was ready to deploy both there full-scale actions, and the Commander-in-chief even ordered to begin them. Then Putin's initiatives helped Obama to get out of the thorny situation, and military actions were cancelled.
 There is no conflict between the US and Russia, but there are disagreements that can be resolved at the negotiating table. It was so until Russia began its operation on the annexation of Ukraine. Unlike the US political and defense establishments, who correctly reacted to the actions of the ‘external factor’ in Libya, Putin does not trust his generals, and therefore believes that the reason for all the recent failures lies in their conspiracy against the country's leadership.
 For his consciousness such a version is more acceptable than recognition of the existence of a large-scale impact of an unknown nature. It is likely that his recent meeting with the Pope will give him an understanding of the scale of those events on the Earth, part of which there was the conflict in Ukraine, unleashed by Russia to please the imperial ambitions of its president. It makes no sense to bluff and threaten Europe and the US with a war, which for Russia will entail the same consequences that she already has in the zone of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
 Russia, like a primitive with a flintstone in hand, wants to resist technologies that are far beyond the understanding of human consciousness. Now it's up to her to decide whether she will retain her integrity or break up into a multitude of states, finally burying her hope for a revival in the foreseeable future.
 It is time that we were recollecting the words: “I'll come unexpectedly, and everyone should be ready.” There has come time to collect stones.

Translated by professor Leonid Bilousov